Thursday, August 9, 2007

An Instapundit Math Exercise

Okay, so InstaGlenn posed this question to his readers: If 10,000 Chinese people convert to Christianity every day, how long to reach 200 million converts (the amount mentioned in the linked article which claims that number will be reached "mid-century")?

First, assumptions need to be made. Since there is no start quantity, for the purpose of this blog post I will say there are currently zero Christians in China. Also, the rate of 10,000 converts per day results in the total of 10,000 occuring at midnight of the day in question. Now, on to the fun!

I determined that today is Day 221 in the Julian calendar. Then, in an unused but related search, I found that at 4PM PST, the day will change according to Zulu = GMT = UTC, which is a kind of general time zone. Therefore, with simple arithmetic, we find that as of 4PM PST, there will be 143 days left in 2007. Here, I found that 2008 is the next leap year (=366 days) which of course occurs every 4 years. So we now have 143 days in 2007, and 1,461 days between Jan. 1st 2008 and Dec. 31st 2011 (every 4 years).

Next, some simple arithmetic. 10,000 converts a day * [143 days + {(1461 days/4 years) * 56 years}] = 205,970,000 converts which is greater than our goal of 200,000,000 converts. The difference between the two is 5,970,000 converts => 597 days. Now, 56 years + 7 years = 63 years, or the year 2063, when we will have almost 6 million extra converts. Next, we start at Dec. 31st 2063 (the day we achieve the previous total) and go back 597 days. 597 - 365 = 232 days. We are now at Dec. 31st 2062, with 232 days left. 365 - 232 = 133 days. It is at this point, on the 133rd day of 2062 (May 13th), at midnight Greenwich Mean Time, that China will have 200 million Christians.

After attempting to find out what day of the week May 13th, 2062 will be (to see if it would be a Friday!), I sadly found this site. By plugging in 8/10/2007, and the required 20,000 days (at 10,000 converts a day to equal 200 million Christians), I found...dunh dunh dunh...that at midnight May 13th, 2062, China will have 200 million Christians. As AP at Hot Air would say, heartache. At least I was able to exercise my brain. As a note, let me be the first person to suggest that Armageddon will occur on May 13th, 2062!

(just kidding-sheesh)

Update: Just emailed the answer to the good professor (a little late at app. 4:14 PM PST, oh well).

No comments: