"How About A Nice Game Of Chess?"
"A strange game. The only winning move is not to play."
Well, are you ready for Global Thermonuclear War? I know I am. I've got the water bottles packed up, the survival kit rigged for rapid evacuation, and lots and lots of ammo. Bring. It. On!
So, if you haven't seen the news, you're probably wondering what the heck I'm talking about. Oh nothing much really, just the recent assassination of Benazir Bhutto, former PM of Pakistan and assumed future PM (in a unity government with President Musharraf) after next month's scheduled elections. So of course, nuclear armed Pakistan is now going through the first spasms of rage following the assassination. Overheard on Fox News this morning, Pakistan is believed (with high confidence level) to have 100+ nuclear weapons, which are in the control of the military. Twenty percent of the military is made up of Pashtuns. Pashtuns are historically sympathetic with the cause of the Taliban. The Taliban is not nice. If the Pashtun portion of the military (or of course, the ISI) is able to get their hands on even one nuclear weapon during the confusion and chaos of the next few days (at least), and if they hand it off to the Taliban/Al Qaeda, then it isn't really very hard at all to see what will happen next. Let me paint you one possible picture...
Since Israel is closer to Pakistan then the U.S., and since there are no oceans between the two, and since there are several 'friendly' countries between the two (Pakistan to Iran to Kurdistan [the only hard part] to Syria to Israel) then it is highly probable that the bomb would go off in Israel. Flash. Tel Aviv just evaporated. Israel responds. Islamabad, Karachi, Hyderabad, Quetta and Rawalpindi were just destroyed. Remaining elements of the Pakistani military, even if they were not the original parties to seize and transfer the first nuclear bomb, respond in kind, either against Israel, against US forces in Iraq, Afghanistan, or elsewhere in the Gulf region, or even more likely perhaps, against India. The conflict spreads as India and Pakistan trade nukes. Israel, in a last ditch effort to prevent complete and total devastation, launches all of it's remaining nukes at Tehran, Riyadh, Jedda, Mecca, Damascus, and any other targets of opportunity that it can reach. The greater middle east, and certainly the entire 'muslim world' descends into complete and intractable mayhem. Riots, civil wars and cross-border wars set in as the world slides into the events of World War III (or IV). The United States, Russia, and China square off against each other in a three-way battle for survival as they defend their own interests in the region. Russia, while heavily nuclear armed, and certainly a grave threat, would not ultimately be the greatest foe before us. No, that would be China. Also nuclear armed, with an ever expanding military, and a history of spying (that news just broke today, via Insty), hacking, and other non-friendly acts against the U.S. And so it begins...
So there's your happy thought for the day. Carry on.
Update: Charles Johnson at LGF linked this open letter from Scott Ott (of Scrappleface fame) to the leaders of Europe. Read the whole thing.
